Критична точка: конфлікт з Україною загрожує Росії катастрофою — думка Voce di New York - Всі українські новини

The current aggression against Ukraine might lead to historical consequences for Russia similar to those after its defeat in the Crimean War in the 19th century.

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Dictator Putin / © Associated Press

The full-scale war against Ukraine could mark a historical turning point for Russia, much like the Crimean War of the 19th century, after which the Russian Empire lost its status as a leading world power for a long time.

This is according to an opinion piece for the Italian-American publication Voce di New York by international journalist Renzo Cianfanelli.

The author recalls that over 170 years ago, Russia’s defeat in the Crimean War of 1853–1856 exposed its economic backwardness, diplomatic isolation, and governmental crisis. The subsequent reforms by Emperor Alexander II only partially modernized the country, but at the same time, they laid the groundwork for a future crisis of Russian autocracy.

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In Cianfanelli’s opinion, the current war against Ukraine might have similar historical repercussions.

According to him, the Kremlin expected a swift victory, but instead found itself embroiled in a prolonged, draining conflict with no clear prospect of achieving its objectives. Meanwhile, Ukraine is intensifying drone strikes on Russian territory, hitting military and strategic targets, including those far from the front lines.

“Putin’s hopes of restoring Russia’s grandeur as a nuclear superpower interacting with the US and China on equal footing are a mirage,” the journalist notes.

The author also emphasizes that Moscow is increasingly dependent on China, both in trade and diplomatic support, even though both countries officially continue to describe their relationship as an equal partnership.

In Cianfanelli’s view, unlike in the 19th century, the current Russian leadership is unlikely to respond to military setbacks with large-scale reforms. Instead, the Kremlin is banking on further centralization of power, increased societal control, and mobilization mechanisms.

“History shows that prolonged, fruitless wars rarely strengthen authoritarian systems indefinitely,” the author stresses.

According to him, protracted wars deplete state resources, narrow political choices, and gradually erode the trust upon which authoritarian power relies.